Young Professionals in Foreign Policy - Europe

Britain’s foreign policy – soft or hard power?

Wed, 15 Oct 2008 01:54:03 -0700

This question has preoccupied Britain’s foreign policy makers since the end of the Second World War, and perhaps more so since the end of the Cold War.

Post 1989 has brought new debates about Britain’s role in the world. Our traditional enemies have been replaced by worldwide terrorist networks, raising the question of how do we deal with this new enemy? This conflict is like no other. Terrorist networks have built training and organisational facilities in unstable states such as Afghanistan. Our response in such cases has been to use hard power and remove the regimes, drive out the militants and promote democracy.

Georgia, la punta del iceberg

Thu, 09 Oct 2008 17:31:27 -0700

La situación actual en las relaciones entre Rusia y los paises occidentales no estan a lo mejor. El reconocimiento de las dos regiones de Abjasia y de Osetia del Sur por el gobierno ruso explica en parte la razón. Pero no es la única. Otras razones pueden ser evocadas.

Una de la màs importante es la configuración que empieza de caracterizar la seguridad y la defensia alrededor de Rusia. Hacen muchos años que la tendencia de una "Otanisacion" de Europa se propaga. Numerosos paises aspiran a entrar en la Organisación Norte Atlantica. Evidentemente, la Georgia forma parte de " esos "candidatos. Ahora, es un interlocutor privilegiado. La hemorragia empieza a ser grande por Rusia. Perdió muchos de sus aliados del antiguo bloque comunista con la entrada en 2004 de los tres Países Bálticos la Estonia, Letonia, Lituania y también de paises como Slovenia, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia. Pero es la segunda vez que la hemorragia se manifesta. La primera fue en 1999 con la entrada de la Polonia, la Hungría y la Républica Checa. Por fin, es necesario de notar que muchos paises que forman parte del URSS, son ahora partenarios privilegiados del OTAN. La necessitad de estar en la Organisación se explica por el medio del espectro soviético. Los Estados piensan que ser miembro del OTAN los protegerán de todas tentativas de influencia y de invasión de la Rusia.

Controversial book to be published in Germany

Wed, 03 Sep 2008 15:16:35 -0700

An unnamed German publisher has agreed to publish The Jewel of Medina, a novel about the prophet Muhammed and his child bride. The book was passed over by Random House over concerns that it might incite anger among Muslims. Though the author claims the story honors the prophet and his wife, the book was withdrawn from shelves in Serbia after local imams protested, saying the book was insulting to Islam.

[NY Sun via Gawker]

Hard power in the Caucasus

Wed, 03 Sep 2008 11:58:25 -0700

Russia's willingness to break the so-called international rules of territorial integrity is less a challenge to the ideas and ideals of those institutions than a threat to the military and political frameworks that underpin them

For many so-called international affairs experts, Russia's recent invasion of Georgia marked a spectacular return to great power politics. A resurgent and deadly serious Russia, the argument goes, shocked the Western world into a 21st century reality that would mirror that of the 19th. The age of soft power ended on 8 August, 2008.

But, for those of us who have been long-time Caucasus watchers, soft power was never all that relevant.

The EU must act to protect the European Project

Mon, 01 Sep 2008 19:04:31 -0700

Russia’s incursion into Georgia is a major challenge to the idea of a Europe whole and free. This holds whether or not one believes Georgia is part of Europe, or should join the EU. Georgia is in Europe’s neighborhood. With its disproportionate show of force, Russia is sending the message to European capitals that the unstable status quo of frozen conflicts should remain festering on Europe’s periphery. But, if Russia’s actions prove anything, it is that the status quo in sovereignty-uncertain areas like South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Transnistria and Nagorno-Karabakh is as threatening to the EU as it is to the countries of the Black Sea region. It is for this reason that the current ceasefire agreement to end hostilities in Georgia comes up significantly short.

Israel Need Not Fear Turkey's Islamist Government

Sat, 23 Aug 2008 09:47:19 -0700

Analysts are concerned that recent Islamist trends in Ankara could threaten the long-standing amicable relations between Israel and Turkey. These fears were highlighted by legislation passed in Turkey on Feb. 9, which rescinded a law in the constitution banning the wearing of a traditional Islamic headscarf. However, in June Turkey's high court overturned this ruling, claiming it violated separation of religion and state. Turkey is governed by the Justice and Development Party (AKP), whereby Recep Tayyip Erdogan is the prime minister and Abdullah Gul is the president. Erdogan and Gul share pro-Islamist beliefs that clash with the secular nature of the majority of Turkey's political and military establishment.

Georgian War Could Revitalize Chances for European Missile Defense Sites

Mon, 18 Aug 2008 14:25:09 -0700

The looming debate in Congress over building U.S. missiles defense sites in eastern Europe could be significantly altered in the wake of Russia’s war with neighboring Georgia.

The Bush administration is moving quickly to cement agreements with Poland and the Czech Republic in a rush to break ground on interceptor and radar sites in those two countries before leaving office. A senior State Department official met with Polish leaders Wednesday amid reports of a breakthrough in the negotiations.

But Democrats in Congress have stymied these efforts by using their legislative powers to postpone groundbreaking on the sites.

Ensuring U.S. Access to the International Space Station

Mon, 18 Aug 2008 13:25:59 -0700

In his highly publicized July 24 speech in Berlin, presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama struck a conciliatory chord in saying, “we must reject the Cold War mindset of the past and resolve to work with Russia when we can.” A few days later, Russia’s envoy to NATO, Dmitri Rogozin, raised the idea of a new security framework for Eurasia that would include the United States and Russia, as well as China and India. Skeptics’ views that this might be a ploy to undermine NATO were significantly reinforced on August 11, when Russia launched a punitive expedition against Georgia.

Russia invaded Georgia to teach the West a lesson

Mon, 18 Aug 2008 13:17:17 -0700

EUOBSERVER / COMMENT - Russia invaded Georgia to teach the West three lessons. Lesson one is that no matter how democratic, enthusiastically pro-American and EU-aspiring a country, if Moscow considers it to be in its sphere of influence, it will not be allowed to shape its own destiny. This extends to Ukraine and its ideas of joining NATO, energy-rich and Western-leaning Azerbaijan, as well as the strategically important countries of the Caspian and Central Asia, north of Afghanistan. Lesson two is that no matter how much the US and its European allies attempt to increase their energy security by seeking new routes to Caspian oil and gas resources not controlled by Russia or Iran, Moscow will do its utmost, even kill thousands in a war, to block Western access.

Russia's war for oil supplies

Mon, 18 Aug 2008 13:12:50 -0700

A regional bully with a bloated military and aspirations to great-power status just invaded a small neighbor to steal its oil. In the process, it has blocked key energy exports to the Western world, dismissed global calls for restraint and flouted international law. As a pretext for invasion, it has questioned its small neighbor’s sovereignty and cooked up cockamamie claims to excuse naked and preplanned aggression. Unlike Iraq in 1990, however, Russia in 2008 has veto power on the UN Security Council. And, unlike Kuwait, Georgia does not have natural resources of its own, but serves as a strategic conduit for Caspian crude on its way to Europe and the broader West.

Georgian War Could Revitalize Chances for European Missile Defense Sites

Thu, 14 Aug 2008 12:20:41 -0700

The looming debate in Congress over building U.S. missiles defense sites in eastern Europe could be significantly altered in the wake of Russia’s war with neighboring Georgia.

But Democrats in Congress have stymied these efforts by using their legislative powers to postpone groundbreaking on the sites.

Georgian War Could Revitalize Chances for European Missile Defense Sites

Wed, 13 Aug 2008 13:47:26 -0700

The looming debate in Congress over building U.S. missiles defense sites in eastern Europe could be significantly altered in the wake of Russia’s war with neighboring Georgia.

The Bush administration is moving quickly to cement agreements with Poland and the Czech Republic in a rush to break ground on interceptor and radar sites in those two countries before leaving office. Democrats in Congress have stymied these efforts by using their legislative powers to postpone groundbreaking on the sites.

Standing up to Russia

Mon, 11 Aug 2008 07:11:49 -0700

A European democracy is under full-scale attack from Russia, and EU and Nato leaders are either wringing their hands or sitting on them. The continuing conflict in Georgia is not really about the small south-Caucasus country. By opening up a three-front offensive on Georgia, Moscow is deliberately testing Europe's mettle. The broader west – European countries, the US, Canada and the host of post-1945 international institutions – are of course also being tested. But Moscow is particularly interested in how Europe's heavyweights will react. In the wake of serious violence and immense geopolitical consequences, however, Britain, France and Germany have done nothing that might be expected of great powers.

Gaz de France cancels Nabucco interest

Mon, 11 Aug 2008 03:04:43 -0700

French energy firm Gaz de France recently canceled its bid to become the seventh member of Nabucco pipeline consortium.

The French gas company’s involvement with the Nabucco pipeline was contentious. Turkish energy officials opposed Gaz de France’s involvement with the Nabucco pipeline because of the French National Assembly’s approval of a bill which made it a crime to deny that Armenians suffered at the hands of the Ottomans during the First World War.

Despite resistance, however, France continued to show interest in participating as recently as last month. Details of the cancellation were not given, though Jean Sirelli of Gaz de France-Suez said that it would consider rejoining if the pipeline was extended to France.

My take on it is that it doesn't really matter. Nabucco has enough leadership; what it needs are the actual supplies. Dubbed 'a pipeline without gas,' the Nabucco pipeline project has floundered in the absence of a natural gas source. Azerbaijan, the onetime hope for the pipeline’s leadership, is no longer “feasible” as a supplier. In the absence of a single gas source, Nabucco leadership is deliberating a more multilateral approach for the pipeline, potentially supplying Europe an amalgamation of Middle Eastern, Northern African, and Eurasian gas. This would raise the multi-billion dollar price tag on Nabucco even higher, but at the very least save its face.

Open door policy best for EU

Thu, 07 Aug 2008 18:33:42 -0700

It is now a familiar line among commentators to point out that Ukraine’s post-Orange European Union prospects are ironically being delayed by political struggles between Western-leaning factions. But, the EU itself is in the midst of internal squabbles that might threaten the future of Ukraine’s accession. Ireland’s recent rejection of the EU's Lisbon Treaty has led to two contrasting storylines about the Union’s prospects for further enlargement: no more deepening means no more widening or reduced internal focus opens the door to priorities on the periphery, such as Ukraine.