Russia invaded Georgia to teach the West a lesson
EUOBSERVER / COMMENT - Russia invaded Georgia to teach the West three lessons. Lesson one is that no matter how democratic, enthusiastically pro-American and EU-aspiring a country, if Moscow considers it to be in its sphere of influence, it will not be allowed to shape its own destiny. This extends to Ukraine and its ideas of joining NATO, energy-rich and Western-leaning Azerbaijan, as well as the strategically important countries of the Caspian and Central Asia, north of Afghanistan. Lesson two is that no matter how much the US and its European allies attempt to increase their energy security by seeking new routes to Caspian oil and gas resources not controlled by Russia or Iran, Moscow will do its utmost, even kill thousands in a war, to block Western access. Russia's increasing dominance of Europe's energy imports, overwhelming stake in world natural gas supplies and designs for a 'gas OPEC' should not be challenged. Lesson three is more broad. In the context of post Group of Eight summit calls from Moscow to fundamentally overhaul global security and economic institutions that are too dependent on 'one country and one currency', Russia's invasion of a small neighbouring country is a demonstration of contempt for a world order that does not respect Russia as it should. Mounting bravado In September, President Dmitri Medvedev intends to unveil a new security paradigm for Eurasia, with an aim to replace NATO. Moscow has chosen to play schoolteacher because it can. Skyrocketing energy prices, stepped-up arms sales and increased central control of resources have catapulted Russia back to international power, after the chaotic Yeltsin era. This, combined with a leadership dominated by former KGB and current security service agents has led to mounting bravado that has caught the West off guard. Russia's three-front war against Georgia must be put into the context of Moscow's recent threat to deploy nuclear-capable bombers to Cuba, its unilateral claiming of the North Pole and the vast natural resources beneath it, its reinstated nuclear patrols to Guam and Scotland, and its sale of anti-aircraft units to Iran, just as an Israeli strike seems increasingly imminent. The West should resist Russia's lesson plan with a multi-pronged strategy of its own. George Bush, Gordon Brown Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy should show solidarity with democratic Georgia by travelling to its capital, Tbilisi, on a very public visit. Working closely with Washington, the EU should craft a comprehensive stability plan for the Black Sea and Caspian regions. South Ossetia is overshadowed in its explosive potential by Georgia's Abkhazia, Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan, and Moldova's Transnistria. All are so-called frozen conflict zones that could thaw at the slightest provocation into the major conflagration witnessed in Georgia. Russia has a hand in maintaining the current simmering status quo in all four hotspots, and their instability serves as a tool to stave off Western influence in the region. European peacekeepers, backed by US and EU diplomats to push for region-wide conflict resolution, could not only saves lives, but would provide for significant leverage against provocative Russian actions around the globe. Looking for respect Only if the West has a greater stake in the region will Moscow reconsider its actions there and elsewhere. Overall, Russia's provocations are a sign of its hunger for international respect. Polls consistently show that Russia's leadership and population prize their country's status above most other concerns. By questioning the country's G-8 membership, prospective WTO accession central role in supplying the International Space Station, and hosting of the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi – all important prestige issues for Moscow – the broader West can provide some global lessons for a resurgent Russia. No matter how confident, Moscow must learn that with its rise comes responsibility. Alexandros Petersen is an Adjunct Fellow with the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.




