Man and The Mob

The United States is very concerned about the president's inability to battle militants near the Durand line, on the Pakistan-Afghan border. Many senior US national security and military leaders are advocating strict measures including the possibility of air and ground operations on Pakistani soil. The US National Intelligence Estimate on Terrorism states that Pakistan has created a sanctuary for Al-Qaeda in the wake of the failure of the Waziristan deal. But Pakistan has stepped up its efforts by sending 80,000 troops and has suffered heavy casualties.

Today inside Pakistan Musharraf faces the Man and the Mob. The Man is Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry, the 'suspended' Chief Justice of Pakistan who was 'reinstated' by a 10-3 majority vote by the Supreme Court. The Mob is a group of religious and secular political forces ostensibly combining efforts to challenge the status quo. The Man is coming back to the Supreme Court but the Mob remains on the streets. The president must respect the Man, placate the Mob, and work on his grades in fighting Al-Qaeda for continued support from his major patron - the United States.

How can he do this?

The Man: A year ago, before the president suspended' the Man, Chief Justice Chaudhry, a move to promote democratic reforms had seemed logical. It made political and economic sense to set precedent by strengthening and reforming political and judicial institutions at a time of high economic growth and favourable world conditions. But such reforms would have directly challenged presidential decree. Thus this move never happened, for the various levels of national elections in the last eight years have produced members of parliament who serve in a body with little or no legislative power, regardless of merit or intent towards public service.

Musharraf now must fix past mistakes by aiding the Chief Justice in insuring that the elections in November are free from meddling by intelligence agencies and fair under an independent judiciary with limited judicial activism. However, without Musharraf's law enforcement agencies the judiciary's decisions will hold no ground. This won't be easy considering the traditional wedge between military rulers and the judiciary in Pakistan, but it must be done. In addition, engaging exiled leaders of secular parties and negotiating a power sharing formula is essential for any efforts to revive constitutional democracy in Pakistan.

The Mob: The Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) incident turned out to be a double-edged sword for Musharraf; it pacified the fears of Muslim moderates but also lead to a violent backlash from the militants. With suicide bombs going off in one part of the country and sweets being distributed in another to ceremonialize a demand for the restoration of the Chief Justice, it is time to rethink the social contract between the president and his people, the Pakistanis.

The Mob is fighting for a voice in federal government decision-making. In addition to free and fair elections, the government should encourage pluralistic practices in all national military and socio-economic policies. The conventional approach of the government's paternalistic attitude towards the people will no longer suffice.

For example, fighting Al-Qaeda by sheer military force may be effective in the short run, but sympathisers of Al-Qaeda will not simply die - they will have to be engaged by the government through non-military efforts. A political solution based on economic and education reform must be implemented in northern regions of NWFP and FATA. Sustainable development comes from asking questions about long-term planning: Where will Pakistan be in the next twenty years with or without US aid?

The president: I was nineteen when I witnessed the president reveal his multifaceted idealistic agenda to the people of Pakistan in October of 1999. I am happy to see the country register high economic growth rates, but saddened by the lack of checks and balances on the president's power. History is not on the president's side.

For decades Ayub Khan and Zia-ul-Haq ruled the country. In Turkey and Singapore regimes that were first autocratic created the foundations for future democratic nation states. Military rule in Pakistan, however, has failed to create a sustainable constitutional political system, albeit the feat of short-term economic growth.

Without a politically inclusive and empowered middle class and a strong constitution, civil society lacks the protection of the rule of law, and thus fails to bring about a true system of checks and balances enshrined in a constitution that will survive any assassination attempt.

Come November, the president must cede to the will of the people by forming a pluralistic government that respects voices of dissent. An internationally recognised democratic regime would soften the West's fear of a nuclear Islamic state and provide a model for other predominantly Muslim countries.

If he wishes to stop the beginning of the end of his regime the president must lead an effort to spread a political culture of accountability, responsiveness, liberty and rule of law. The Man, Chief Justice Chaudhry, the Mob, secular and religious political forces, and the president must find a common ground fast, not just for the sake of Uncle Sam but more importantly for themselves and their great country.