The looming debate in Congress over building U.S. missiles defense sites in eastern Europe could be significantly altered in the wake of Russia’s war with neighboring Georgia.

The Bush administration is moving quickly to cement agreements with Poland and the Czech Republic in a rush to break ground on interceptor and radar sites in those two countries before leaving office. A senior State Department official met with Polish leaders Wednesday amid reports of a breakthrough in the negotiations.

But Democrats in Congress have stymied these efforts by using their legislative powers to postpone groundbreaking on the sites.

In September, lawmakers will resume their debate over the missile sites — this time amid fresh concerns over Russian threats to U.S. allies in eastern Europe. Though the administration has presented the missiles sites as a defense against Iranian attack, missile defense advocates say they now plan to cite the Russian threat as a way to get Democrats to let construction begin.

Leading those advocates is presumptive Republican presidential nominee Sen. John McCain , R-Ariz., who sees the sites as a badly needed component of the American strategic presence in the region. He is quick to link their necessity to Russia’s increasingly aggressive posture.

“Russia’s objections (to the sites) have never been based on anything more than trying to define a sphere of influence in Europe and on the territory of existing NATO members,” said McCain’s top foreign policy advisor Randy Scheunemann, “Senator McCain believes that is unacceptable — especially in the aftermath of Russia’s brutal invasion of Georgia.”

The Russo-Georgian war has not affected Barack Obama ’s opposition to starting construction on the sites, which is still based on his argument that the missiles’ effectiveness in countering the threat of ballistic missiles hasn’t been proven.

“Congress will not and should not fund a system until testing has proven that it works, and that testing will not be completed until 2010 at the earliest,” said Wendy Morigi, a spokesman for Obama, D-Ill.

Resolve Or Provocation?

The dispute over the sites is grounded in a basic disagreement over their purpose. For missile defense advocates, the system is as much a diplomatic network as a military one, tying new allies into deeper technological cooperation with the United States while deterring potential adversaries.

Although the primary function of the system is to deter Iran, its demonstration of American resolve vis-à-vis Russia is a valid secondary justification heightened by recent events, said Rep. Trent Franks , R-Ariz., a leading missile defense champion.

“Russia’s actions represent compelling data that should be convincing to Democrats that we don’t want to delay this thing,” Franks said, “This is not just about missile defense; this is about demonstrating to Russia that America is still a nation of resolve . . .  and we’re not going to let Russian expansionism intimidate everyone.”

For Democrats, the sites represent an irresponsible rush to deploy a system that has not undergone sufficient testing and might not be the right approach to deal with the missile threat from Iran. Moreover, they believe that the U.S. must engage Russia to cooperate on missile defense rather than confirm Russian fears that the system is directed at them.

“What you have is an attempt to conflate the third site issue with Russia’s provocation in the Caucasus, and they’re completely unrelated,” said Ellen O. Tauscher , chair woman of the House Armed Services Strategic Forces Subcommittee, which oversees the missile defense program. The other two missile sites are in California and Alaska.

Democrats inserted language barring any construction on the European sites in their versions of the fiscal 2009 military construction appropriations bill (HR 6599, S 3301) and their fiscal 2009 defense authorization bills (HR 5658, S 3001) until final agreements with the host nations are reached.

Under the administration’s plan for the sites, Poland would host 10 missile interceptors aimed at protecting U.S. assets in Europe from the future threat of Iranian ballistic missiles and the Czech Republic would host an advanced X-band radar linked to those interceptors. The U.S. and Czech governments signed an agreement regarding that part of the system in July, which is now awaiting ratification by the Czech parliament.

Democrats have also consistently cut funding for the project, estimated by the Congressional Research Service to cost a total $4.8 billion, in an effort to steer it towards more oversight and accountability.

Baiting The Bear

Since the crisis in Georgia erupted Aug. 7, Obama and other Democrats have condemned Russia’s invasion of Georgia, but they are not ready to say that the current crisis should form the basis of a new policy approach in eastern Europe.

Tauscher said linking the two issues threatens to destroy the credibility of administration claims that the system has nothing to do with Russia.

Indeed, administration representatives, including Lt. Gen. Trey Obering, director of the Missile Defense Agency, continue to make that claim.

“Russia’s primary concern was that we were exaggerating the Iranian threat and therefore these sites in Europe must be directed at them . . .  And we’ve gone a long way to try to dissuade them of that notion,” Obering said July 15, while promising to offer Russia transparency and limited participation.

In Moscow’s view, the missile defense sites are inexorably linked to U.S. relationships with eastern Europe, including ongoing NATO and EU expansion, said Alexandros Petersen, a fellow in the Russia and Eurasia program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Moving quickly to deploy the sites could provoke Russia to take countermeasures, which could include deploying bombers in Cuba, he said.

“This historic Russian fear of encirclement is very much alive at the moment,” said Petersen.

Breakthrough Seen in U.S., Poland Talks

Meanwhile, the negotiations between the United States and Poland over the site may be nearing a breakthrough. John Rood, the State Department’s lead negotiator for the sites, began a series of talks Wednesday in Warsaw aimed at completing the deal. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk predicted positive progress in a news conference Tuesday.

Tusk sees the Georgian crisis as an opportunity for Poland to receive long-sought concessions from the U.S. side, which could include more explicit security commitments and transfers of American military technology.

“Today it’s much more probable than a few weeks ago that the American side will take into consideration the proposition of my government,” Tusk said, according to the Associated Press.

Olaf Osica, a research fellow at Warsaw’s Natolin European Centre, said Poland is seeking strong security commitments from the United States that go beyond those provided by NATO, which Poland only recently joined.

Speaking by telephone from Warsaw, Osica said that just as Georgia’s push to join NATO made it a target of Russia pressure, the construction of a U.S. missile defense site in Poland threatens to provoke Russian moves against Warsaw. Therefore, Osica added, Tusk is looking for concrete U.S. assurances.

“Georgia is a kind of litmus test for American intentions,” he said. “After Iraq, pubic opinion is very skeptical about the Polish-U.S. strategic relationship, so the government needs something palpable.”